February Surprise

27 of the Tenth Month 5769

In the U. S., it's called an "October Surprise," something which comes to light right before elections in November, which has the power to shift the expected outcome in one direction or another.

President Ronald Reagan was accused of negotiating secretly with Iran, not only to secure the release of the American hostages being held, but to ensure that their release took place after the 1980 presidential elections. On January 20, 1981, newly inaugurated, President Ronald Reagan was then able to close his speech with the announcement that the American hostages were on a flight home, and that they had cleared Iranian airspace.

Could Tzippy Livni (Kadima) and/or Ehud Baraq (Labor) be planning something similar, even something tasteless like something with Gilad Shalit?

Rumors were already abound toward the end of the "war" that Gilad had been secured, and was being hidden. Even his parents were allegedly sworn to secrecy.

Is it possible that he will miraculously appear right before the February 10, Israeli elections?

Then in fits of ecstasy, or insanity, either way you look at it, the Israeli public will rush to the polls in order to put Livni and Baraq in power?

Then sometime after that, will Israelis awake from their coma, and exclaim, "Oh my gosh! What did we do?!"

Then they'll fall back into their numbed out state of learned helplessness.

Baraq's gains from the "Gaza Election War," have leveled off; Livni can no longer break past Netanyahu's Likud in the polls. If Kadima and Labor expect to have strong showings in this election, they will have to do something dramatic.

Whether it is dramatic, or, in the words of outgoing Prime Minister Olmert, a "terrible price," that remains to be seen.

Livni and Baraq may be worried, but they are not stupid. But their pride could end up causing their downfall, or they could simply end up turning on each other, cutting their losses and preparing to do what it takes to convince Netanyahu to take them into his coalition.

Will Netanyahu take Baraq in as his defense minister, putting Livni out in the cold? Will he be forced into a centrist coalition with Livni? Or will the election results be able to justify the forming of a right-wing and religious parties?

Whether from Livni, Baraq, or Netanyahu, I am concerned that there will be a February surprise.